Serie A · Brazil · MRV ArenaAtletico-MG vs Fluminense prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.85 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.4 – 1.3 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Atletico-MG and Fluminense on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Atletico-MG have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Fluminense have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. Fluminense come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Atletico-MG, 1.3 for Fluminense). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 54% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.85, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Fluminense to win at 3.20 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Atletico-MG to win ✓ | 40% | 2.49 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG ✗ | 23% | 4.33 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.10 | – |
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
| 9 Sep | @ Santos | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Vitoria | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Aug | @ Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Internacional | 0–0 | D |
Fluminense – last 6
| 8 Sep | vs Platense | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Vasco DA Gama | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Atletico Paranaense | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Remo | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Aug | @ Independ. Rivadavia | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Palmeiras | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Fluminense.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fluminense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Atletico-MG vs Fluminense?
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.