Serie A · BrazilCruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & analysis
Cruzeiro or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.9 – 0.8 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cruzeiro are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 15% for Atletico Paranaense.
Cruzeiro have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Atletico Paranaense have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded. Atletico Paranaense come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Cruzeiro, 0.8 for Atletico Paranaense). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Cruzeiro have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Cruzeiro to win at 1.85 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cruzeiro to win ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cruzeiro or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.38 | – |
| Half-time result | Cruzeiro ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.20 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro ✗ | 41% | 2.45 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.54 | – |
Form
Cruzeiro – last 6
| 2 Sep | @ Atletico-MG | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Vasco DA Gama | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Aug | vs Atletico-MG | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Flamengo | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Aug | @ Flamengo | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
| 30 Aug | vs Fluminense | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Aug | @ Botafogo | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs RB Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | @ Santos | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Vitoria | 0–4 | L |
| 4 Aug | vs Vitoria | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 18 Mar 2026 | Atletico Paranaense v Cruzeiro | 2–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atletico Paranaense 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.