Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 4.10 – our chance 29% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✗45% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.26
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
Sao Paulo host Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A on Thursday 23 July, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Remo 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to RB Bragantino 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Sao Paulo and 1.1 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 45%, draw 26%, Atletico Paranaense 29%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Atletico Paranaense to win at 4.10 – 29% on our numbers against 24% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo45%fair 2.22 · @1.96
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.15
Atletico Paranaense29%fair 3.42 · @4.10
2.40Expected goals
1.34Sao Paulo xG
1.07Atletico Paranaense xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.3 – 1.1 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
Attack vs Serie A average
-23%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.33
1.11
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✗
45%
2.22
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.26
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
LWDLDD
1 Jun
@ Remo
0–1
L
26 May
vs Boston River
2–0
W
20 May
vs Millonarios
1–1
D
13 May
@ Juventude
1–3
L
7 May
@ O'Higgins
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Millonarios
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LLWWDL
11 Jul
@ RB Bragantino
1–2
L
9 Jul
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
30 May
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
24 May
@ Remo
2–1
W
17 May
vs Flamengo
1–1
D
11 May
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico Paranaense 29%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
