Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✓69% · @1.41
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓88% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.26
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo preview and prediction
The match
Flamengo travel to Arena Condá in the Serie A on Thursday 23 July (01:30 WAT) to face Chapecoense-sc. Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 21 points from 33 games (in the bottom three), while Flamengo sit 1st on 76 points (top of the table). A gap of 55 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Bahia 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Flamengo's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Olimpia 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Flamengo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc and 2.3 for Flamengo. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Chapecoense-sc 0–2 Flamengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chapecoense-sc12%fair 8.07 · @7.30
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @4.40
Flamengo69%fair 1.46 · @1.41
3.10Expected goals
0.78Chapecoense-sc xG
2.32Flamengo xG
56%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–110%
1–29%
0–39%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 0.8 – 2.3 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Chapecoense-sc
Flamengo
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
+55%
Goals conceded vs average
+56%
-31%
Our expected goals here
0.82
2.77
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
69%
1.46
1.41
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.36
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.26
–
Form
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
LLDLWL
17 Jul
@ Bahia
0–2
L
4 Jun
@ Avai
0–3
L
27 May
vs Novorizontino
2–2
D
24 May
@ Cruzeiro
1–2
L
20 May
@ Novorizontino
2–0
W
17 May
vs Remo
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
WWWDWW
18 Jul
vs Olimpia
4–2
W
11 Jul
@ Benfica
2–1
W
8 Jul
vs Lausanne
2–0
W
3 Jul
vs River Plate
2–2
D
30 May
vs Coritiba
3–0
W
27 May
vs Cusco
3–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Flamengo.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Flamengo 69%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 0–2 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo?
Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
