Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.60 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFluminense to win ✗46% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.33
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Vasco DA Gama take on Fluminense on Thursday 19 March, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estádio do Maracanã. Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 41 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Fluminense sit 4th on 57 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama's last 4: DWLL Most recently they drew with Cruzeiro 3–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Fluminense's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Atletico Paranaense 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fluminense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.4 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 February 2026, finished Vasco DA Gama 0–1 Fluminense.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.5 for Fluminense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 32%, draw 22%, Fluminense 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 3.60 – 32% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama32%fair 3.17 · @3.60
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.15
Fluminense46%fair 2.18 · @2.12
2.61Expected goals
1.15Vasco DA Gama xG
1.46Fluminense xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.2 – 1.5 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fluminense 46%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
