Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Gremio to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGremio to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.22
Gremio vs Vitoria preview and prediction
The match
Vitoria travel to Arena do Grêmio in the Serie A on Thursday 19 March (23:00 WAT) to face Gremio. Gremio are 18th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom three), while Vitoria sit 15th on 38 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Gremio's last 4: DDWD Most recently they drew with Chapecoense-sc 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Vitoria's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with Bahia 1–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vitoria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Gremio and 0.9 for Vitoria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gremio 59%, draw 25%, Vitoria 15%.
Safer route: Gremio or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Gremio to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Gremio or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gremio 1–0 Vitoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gremio59%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.50
Vitoria15%fair 6.46 · @4.10
2.90Expected goals
1.96Gremio xG
0.93Vitoria xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Gremio 2.0 – 0.9 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✓
59%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Gremio or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Half-time result
Gremio ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gremio / FT Gremio✓
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.22
–
Form
Gremio – last 4
DDWD
17 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico-MG
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 3
DWW
12 Mar
@ Bahia
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Galícia
3–0
W
18 Feb
vs Bahia de Feira
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Vitoria.
Our pick is Gremio or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gremio vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Gremio have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Vitoria 15%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Vitoria?
Gremio vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
