Value bet: Mirassol to win @ 1.72 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMirassol to win ✗63% · @1.72
Double chanceMirassol or draw ✗87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.24
Mirassol vs Coritiba preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Mirassol take on Coritiba on Thursday 19 March, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Mirassol are 14th with 40 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Coritiba sit 12th on 42 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Mirassol and 0.7 for Coritiba. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Mirassol to win at 1.72 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Mirassol 1–0 Coritiba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mirassol63%fair 1.58 · @1.72
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.35
Coritiba13%fair 7.68 · @5.20
2.61Expected goals
1.87Mirassol xG
0.73Coritiba xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.9 – 0.7 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✗
63%
1.58
1.72 ▲
Double chance
Mirassol or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Half-time result
Mirassol ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.24
–
Form
Mirassol – last 2
DL
11 Mar
vs Santos
2–2
D
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 2
WL
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Coritiba.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mirassol vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Coritiba 13%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Coritiba?
Mirassol vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
