Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.28 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗50% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.80
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama host Palmeiras in the Serie A on Thursday 12 March, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estádio São Januário. Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 41 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 73 points (in the top four). A gap of 32 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Novorizontino 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.1 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.8 for Palmeiras. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 26%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Palmeiras to win at 2.28 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama26%fair 3.88 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.35
Palmeiras50%fair 1.99 · @2.28
2.86Expected goals
1.08Vasco DA Gama xG
1.78Palmeiras xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
2–16%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.1 – 1.8 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
Attack vs Serie A average
+8%
+43%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-43%
Our expected goals here
0.94
1.73
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✗
50%
1.99
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✗
33%
3.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.80
–
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 2
LL
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
WWWWWD
9 Mar
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
5 Mar
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
2–1
W
26 Feb
vs Fluminense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Capivariano
4–0
W
16 Feb
vs Guarani Campinas
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Palmeiras 50%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
