Bahia host Vitoria in the Serie A on Thursday 12 March, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vitoria sit 15th on 38 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Bahia and 0.8 for Vitoria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bahia 60%, draw 22%, Vitoria 18%.
Safer route: Bahia or draw (82%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Bahia 2–0 Vitoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia60%fair 1.68 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.60
Vitoria18%fair 5.46 · @4.70
2.71Expected goals
1.89Bahia xG
0.83Vitoria xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.9 – 0.8 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Bahia
Vitoria
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
-34%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.92
0.75
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
60%
1.68
1.73
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Half-time result
Bahia ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.99
–
Form
Bahia – last 2
WL
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 2
WW
22 Feb
vs Galícia
3–0
W
18 Feb
vs Bahia de Feira
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Vitoria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Bahia vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Bahia have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vitoria 18%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Bahia 2–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Vitoria?
Bahia vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
