Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✓63% · @1.56
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓10% · fair 9.67
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro preview and prediction
The match
Cruzeiro travel to Estádio do Maracanã in the Serie A on Thursday 12 March (01:30 WAT) to face Flamengo. Flamengo are 1st with 76 points from 34 games (top of the table), while Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 60 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Flamengo's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Madureira 8–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Flamengo and 1.0 for Cruzeiro. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Flamengo 2–0 Cruzeiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flamengo63%fair 1.59 · @1.56
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.75
Cruzeiro16%fair 6.33 · @6.00
3.05Expected goals
2.09Flamengo xG
0.96Cruzeiro xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.1 – 1.0 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
Attack vs Serie A average
+55%
+36%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
-1%
Our expected goals here
2.34
1.08
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
63%
1.59
1.56
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.30
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
10%
9.67
–
Form
Flamengo – last 5
WWWLW
3 Mar
@ Madureira
8–0
W
27 Feb
vs Lanus
2–1
W
23 Feb
vs Madureira
3–0
W
20 Feb
@ Lanus
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Botafogo
2–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 2
DW
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Cruzeiro.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Cruzeiro 16%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
