Santos host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A on Thursday 26 February, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Santos are 9th with 47 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 41 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.7 for Santos and 1.2 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santos 47%, draw 24%, Vasco DA Gama 29%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Santos 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos47%fair 2.13 · @2.06
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.35
Vasco DA Gama29%fair 3.40 · @3.50
2.80Expected goals
1.65Santos xG
1.15Vasco DA Gama xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–110%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Santos 1.7 – 1.2 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
+12%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.80
1.16
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✓
47%
2.13
2.06
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
30%
3.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.00
–
Form
Santos – last 2
LW
22 Feb
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
4.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Santos have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 29%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Vasco DA Gama?
Santos vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
