Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.35 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGremio to win ✓38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗8% · fair 12.00
Gremio vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
Atletico-MG travel to Arena do Grêmio in the Serie A on Thursday 26 February (01:30 WAT) to face Gremio. Gremio are 18th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom three), while Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Gremio and 1.4 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 3.35 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Gremio 1–1 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gremio38%fair 2.63 · @2.20
Draw28%fair 3.52 · @3.20
Atletico-MG34%fair 2.98 · @3.35
2.80Expected goals
1.38Gremio xG
1.43Atletico-MG xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–28%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.4 – 1.4 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
-18%
-2%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-21%
Our expected goals here
0.98
1.14
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✓
38%
2.63
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.40
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
8%
12.00
–
Form
Gremio – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 2
DW
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Itabirito
7–2
W
4.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Atletico-MG.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Gremio have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 34%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
Gremio vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
