Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.42
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗22% · fair 4.62
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees Boca Juniors take on San Lorenzo on Wednesday 11 March, kicking off at 23:45 (WAT) at Alberto Jose Armando. Boca Juniors are 1st with 63 points from 32 games (top of the table), while San Lorenzo sit 18th on 41 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Boca Juniors's last 4: WWDD Most recently they beat Lanus 3–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.0 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Lorenzo's last 4: DDWD Most recently they drew with Talleres Cordoba 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Boca Juniors arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.3 for Boca Juniors and 0.5 for San Lorenzo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Boca Juniors 60%, draw 25%, San Lorenzo 15%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.42.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Boca Juniors 1–0 San Lorenzo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Boca Juniors60%fair 1.67 · @1.67
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.25
San Lorenzo15%fair 6.65 · @6.20
1.82Expected goals
1.34Boca Juniors xG
0.48San Lorenzo xG
46%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–022%
0–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Boca Juniors 1.3 – 0.5 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Juniors to win✗
60%
1.67
1.67
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Juniors / FT Boca Juniors✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
22%
4.62
–
Form
Boca Juniors – last 4
WWDD
5 Mar
@ Lanus
3–0
W
25 Feb
vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy
2–0
W
21 Feb
vs Racing Club
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Platense
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
San Lorenzo – last 4
DDWD
1 Mar
@ Talleres Cordoba
0–0
D
24 Feb
vs Instituto Cordoba
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2–0
W
14 Feb
@ Union Santa Fe
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boca Juniors and San Lorenzo.
What is the prediction for Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Boca Juniors have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and San Lorenzo 15%.
How many goals will there be in Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Boca Juniors 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 23:45 (West Africa Time) at Alberto Jose Armando.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sarmiento Junin0
Racing Club0
Argentinos JRS0
Rosario Central0
Banfield1
Gimnasia L.P.2