Value bet: Chonburi FC to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChonburi FC to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceChonburi FC or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.49
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC preview and prediction
The match
Chonburi FC host Nakhon Ratchasima FC in the Thai League 1 on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Form guide
Chonburi FC's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Kanchanaburi 2–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Sukhothai FC 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Chonburi FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Chonburi FC and 0.8 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chonburi FC 60%, draw 26%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14%.
Safer route: Chonburi FC or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Chonburi FC to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Chonburi FC 1–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chonburi FC60%fair 1.66 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.40
Nakhon Ratchasima FC14%fair 7.11 · @3.80
2.61Expected goals
1.82Chonburi FC xG
0.79Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Chonburi FC 1.8 – 0.8 Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chonburi FC to win✓
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Chonburi FC or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Half-time result
Chonburi FC ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chonburi FC / FT Chonburi FC✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.49
–
Form
Chonburi FC – last 6
DDLWWW
2 May
@ Kanchanaburi
2–2
D
26 Apr
vs Muangthong United
0–0
D
8 Apr
vs Port FC
3–4
L
5 Apr
vs Rayong FC
3–1
W
21 Mar
vs Sukhothai FC
2–0
W
18 Mar
vs Thap Luang United
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nakhon Ratchasima FC – last 6
WDWDLL
2 May
vs Sukhothai FC
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Uthai Thani
0–0
D
21 Mar
@ Ayutthaya FC
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Chiangrai United
1–1
D
7 Mar
vs Buriram United
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Prachuap
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
What is the prediction for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
On our numbers Chonburi FC have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14%.
How many goals will there be in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our predicted score is Chonburi FC 1–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kanchanaburi0
Muangthong United0