Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Portugal to win @ 1.87 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortugal to win ✗63% · @1.87
Double chancePortugal or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.46
Colombia vs Portugal preview and prediction
The match
The World Cup sees Colombia take on Portugal on Sunday 28 June, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Hard Rock Stadium.
Form guide
Colombia's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Congo DR 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Portugal's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Uzbekistan 5–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Portugal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Colombia and 1.9 for Portugal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Colombia 18%, draw 19%, Portugal 63%.
Safer route: Portugal or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Portugal to win at 1.87 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Portugal or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Colombia 0–1 Portugal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Colombia18%fair 5.70 · @4.00
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @3.50
Portugal63%fair 1.59 · @1.87
2.78Expected goals
0.87Colombia xG
1.91Portugal xG
52%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Colombia 0.9 – 1.9 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portugal to win✗
63%
1.59
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Portugal or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.28
Half-time result
Portugal ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portugal / FT Portugal✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.46
–
Form
Colombia – last 5
WWWLL
24 Jun
vs Congo DR
1–0
W
18 Jun
@ Uzbekistan
3–1
W
8 Jun
vs Jordan
2–0
W
29 Mar
vs France
1–3
L
27 Mar
vs Croatia
1–2
L
1.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Portugal – last 6
WDWWWD
23 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
5–0
W
17 Jun
vs Congo DR
1–1
D
10 Jun
vs Nigeria
2–1
W
6 Jun
vs Chile
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ USA
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Mexico
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colombia and Portugal.
Our pick is Portugal or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Colombia vs Portugal?
On our numbers Colombia have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Portugal 63%.
How many goals will there be in Colombia vs Portugal?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Colombia vs Portugal?
Our predicted score is Colombia 0–1 Portugal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Colombia vs Portugal?
Colombia vs Portugal (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Hard Rock Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Congo DR3
Uzbekistan1
Algeria3
Austria3
Jordan1
Argentina3
South Africa0
Canada1