Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.55 – our chance 56% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +43%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEcuador to win ✗77% · @1.17
Double chanceEcuador or draw ✓91% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗85% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗9% · fair 10.70
Ecuador vs Curaçao preview and prediction
The match
Ecuador host Curaçao in the World Cup on Sunday 21 June, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Arrowhead Stadium.
Form guide
Ecuador's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Ivory Coast 0–1 away. They average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Curaçao's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Germany 1–7 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. They average 1.4 scored and 3.6 conceded.
Ecuador arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.6 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.9 for Ecuador and 0.9 for Curaçao. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ecuador 77%, draw 14%, Curaçao 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.55.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.55 – 56% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ecuador 3–0 Curaçao. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ecuador77%fair 1.30 · @1.17
Draw14%fair 7.09 · @7.40
Curaçao9%fair 11.19 · @13.00
3.78Expected goals
2.86Ecuador xG
0.92Curaçao xG
56%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–09%
3–09%
2–19%
3–18%
1–07%
4–06%
From our goals model: Ecuador 2.9 – 0.9 Curaçao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ecuador to win✗
77%
1.30
1.17
Double chance
Ecuador or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
2.55 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.60 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.50
Half-time result
Ecuador ahead at half-time✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ecuador / FT Ecuador✗
54%
1.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
9%
10.70
–
Form
Ecuador – last 5
LWWDD
15 Jun
@ Ivory Coast
0–1
L
7 Jun
vs Guatemala
3–0
W
31 May
vs Saudi Arabia
2–1
W
31 Mar
@ Netherlands
1–1
D
27 Mar
@ Morocco
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Curaçao – last 5
LWLLL
14 Jun
@ Germany
1–7
L
7 Jun
vs Aruba
4–0
W
30 May
@ Scotland
1–4
L
31 Mar
@ Australia
1–5
L
27 Mar
@ China
0–2
L
1.4Scored / game
3.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ecuador and Curaçao.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Ecuador vs Curaçao?
On our numbers Ecuador have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Curaçao 9%.
How many goals will there be in Ecuador vs Curaçao?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Curaçao?
Our predicted score is Ecuador 3–0 Curaçao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Ecuador vs Curaçao?
Ecuador vs Curaçao (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Arrowhead Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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