Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 – our chance 66% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Uruguay 1.3 – 0.4 Cape Verde Islands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Uruguay are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 13% for Cape Verde Islands.
Uruguay have taken 3 points from their last 3 matches (0W 3D 0L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.7 per game. Cape Verde Islands have 7 points from their last 4 (2W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Cape Verde Islands come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.7 goals (1.3 for Uruguay, 0.4 for Cape Verde Islands). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (24%), 0–0 (18%), 2–0 (16%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is our value angle (66% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Uruguay to win ✗ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.47 |
| Double chance | Uruguay or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.50 | 1.65 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Uruguay / FT Uruguay ✗ | 37% | 2.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 24% | 4.10 | – |
Form
Uruguay – last 3
| 15 Jun | @ Saudi Arabia | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Algeria | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | @ England | 1–1 | D |
Cape Verde Islands – last 4
| 15 Jun | @ Spain | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Jun | vs Bermuda | 3–0 | W |
| 31 May | vs Serbia | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Chile | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands.
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Iran0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands?
On our numbers Uruguay have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cape Verde Islands 13%.
How many goals will there be in Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
When is Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands?
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Hard Rock Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.