Tunisia vs Japan prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 60% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tunisia 1.2 – 2.6 Japan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Japan travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 13% for Tunisia.
Tunisia have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches (1W 1D 3L), scoring 0.4 and conceding 2.2 per game. Japan have 7 points from their last 3 (2W 1D 0L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. Japan come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.8 goals (1.2 for Tunisia, 2.6 for Japan). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 1–3 (8%), 0–2 (8%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.05 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Japan to win ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.44 |
| Double chance | Japan or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.33 ▲ |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.65 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Japan ahead at half-time ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Japan / FT Japan ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.97 | – |
Form
Tunisia – last 5
| 15 Jun | @ Sweden | 1–5 | L |
| 6 Jun | @ Belgium | 0–5 | L |
| 1 Jun | @ Austria | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Apr | @ Canada | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Mar | @ Haiti | 1–0 | W |
Japan – last 3
| 14 Jun | @ Netherlands | 2–2 | D |
| 31 May | vs Iceland | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ England | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tunisia and Japan.
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Cape Verde Islands2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tunisia vs Japan?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Tunisia vs Japan?
On our numbers Tunisia have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Japan 64%.
How many goals will there be in Tunisia vs Japan?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Tunisia vs Japan?
Tunisia vs Japan (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.