Value bet: Homeboyz to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultHomeboyz to win44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–113% · fair 7.95
Shabana vs Homeboyz preview and prediction
The match
Shabana host Homeboyz in the FKF Premier League on Saturday 18 April, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at Gusii Stadium. Shabana are 5th with 9 points from 6 games (in the top half), while Homeboyz sit 17th on 5 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Shabana's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Nairobi United 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Homeboyz's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Nairobi United 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Shabana and 1.3 for Homeboyz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Shabana 33%, draw 24%, Homeboyz 44%.
Value angle: Homeboyz to win at 2.45 – 44% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 61% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Shabana 1–1 Homeboyz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shabana33%fair 3.06 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @2.88
Homeboyz44%fair 2.29 · @2.45
2.31Expected goals
1.04Shabana xG
1.27Homeboyz xG
47%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Shabana 1.0 – 1.3 Homeboyz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Homeboyz to win
44%
2.29
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Homeboyz / FT Homeboyz
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
13%
7.95
–
Form
Shabana – last 6
LWLLWW
5 Apr
@ Nairobi United
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Kariobangi Sharks
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
1–5
L
25 Feb
@ Mathare United
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Tusker
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Homeboyz – last 6
DWWDLW
8 Apr
@ Nairobi United
2–2
D
4 Apr
vs Mathare United
3–0
W
28 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs Bandari
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Tusker
0–2
L
2 Mar
vs APS Bomet
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shabana and Homeboyz.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Shabana vs Homeboyz?
On our numbers Shabana have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Homeboyz 44%.
How many goals will there be in Shabana vs Homeboyz?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shabana vs Homeboyz?
Our predicted score is Shabana 1–1 Homeboyz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Shabana vs Homeboyz?
Shabana vs Homeboyz (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Gusii Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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