Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Tusker to win @ 3.75 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAFC Leopards to win ✓47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.42
AFC Leopards vs Tusker preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees AFC Leopards take on Tusker on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Nyayo National Stadium. AFC Leopards are 3rd with 10 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Tusker sit 11th on 6 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
AFC Leopards's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Nairobi United 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tusker's last 4: WWWL Most recently they beat Homeboyz 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for AFC Leopards and 0.8 for Tusker. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: AFC Leopards 47%, draw 24%, Tusker 29%.
Value angle: Tusker to win at 3.75 – 29% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: AFC Leopards 1–0 Tusker. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AFC Leopards47%fair 2.13 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.75
Tusker29%fair 3.46 · @3.75
2.04Expected goals
1.19AFC Leopards xG
0.84Tusker xG
44%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: AFC Leopards 1.2 – 0.8 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AFC Leopards to win✓
47%
2.13
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.50
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AFC Leopards / FT AFC Leopards✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.42
–
Form
AFC Leopards – last 5
WWLWD
18 Mar
vs Nairobi United
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Shabana
5–1
W
26 Feb
@ KCB
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Posta Rangers FC
2–1
W
14 Feb
@ Bandari
0–0
D
1.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Tusker – last 4
WWWL
15 Mar
vs Homeboyz
2–0
W
2 Mar
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Shabana
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Leopards and Tusker.
What is the prediction for AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
On our numbers AFC Leopards have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tusker 29%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is AFC Leopards 1–0 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is AFC Leopards vs Tusker?
AFC Leopards vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Nyayo National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kariobangi Sharks1