Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.90 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.90Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMara Sugar to win ✗62% · @1.90
Double chanceMara Sugar or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.65
Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet preview and prediction
The match
APS Bomet travel to Green Stadium in the FKF Premier League on Saturday 21 March (12:00 WAT) to face Mara Sugar. Mara Sugar are 6th with 9 points from 6 games (in the top half), while APS Bomet sit 13th on 6 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mara Sugar's last 4: DWDW Most recently they drew with Bandari 0–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
APS Bomet's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Bidco United 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Mara Sugar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Mara Sugar and 0.6 for APS Bomet. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 42%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mara Sugar 62%, draw 25%, APS Bomet 13%.
Safer route: Mara Sugar or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mara Sugar to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.90, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mara Sugar 1–0 APS Bomet. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mara Sugar62%fair 1.60 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.00
APS Bomet13%fair 7.92 · @3.80
2.22Expected goals
1.63Mara Sugar xG
0.59APS Bomet xG
42%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Mara Sugar 1.6 – 0.6 APS Bomet expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mara Sugar to win✗
62%
1.60
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Mara Sugar or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mara Sugar / FT Mara Sugar✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.65
–
Form
Mara Sugar – last 4
DWDW
14 Mar
@ Bandari
0–0
D
2 Mar
vs Sofapaka
3–1
W
26 Feb
@ Bidco United
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs Ulinzi Stars
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
APS Bomet – last 5
DLLDL
14 Mar
vs Bidco United
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Homeboyz
1–2
L
26 Feb
vs Kariobangi Sharks
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Police
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs GOR Mahia
1–2
L
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mara Sugar and APS Bomet.
What is the prediction for Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
Our pick is Mara Sugar to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
On our numbers Mara Sugar have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and APS Bomet 13%.
How many goals will there be in Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
Our predicted score is Mara Sugar 1–0 APS Bomet, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet?
Mara Sugar vs APS Bomet (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Green Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bidco United0
Sofapaka0
Police2