Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Marchamalo to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIllescas to win ✓40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.04
Illescas vs Marchamalo preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 18 sees Illescas take on Marchamalo on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Illescas. Illescas are 6th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Marchamalo sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Illescas's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Villarrubia 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Illescas and 1.1 for Marchamalo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 47%.
Value angle: Marchamalo to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 61% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Illescas 1–1 Marchamalo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Illescas40%fair 2.49 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Marchamalo36%fair 2.80 · @3.00
2.23Expected goals
1.16Illescas xG
1.07Marchamalo xG
47%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Illescas 1.2 – 1.1 Marchamalo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Illescas to win✓
40%
2.49
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Illescas / FT Illescas✓
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.04
–
Form
Illescas – last 3
DLL
1 Mar
vs Villarrubia
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Tarancón
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Pedroñeras
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Marchamalo – last 2
LW
1 Mar
@ Villarrobledo
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Albacete II
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Illescas and Marchamalo.
What is the prediction for Illescas vs Marchamalo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Illescas vs Marchamalo?
On our numbers Illescas have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Marchamalo 36%.
How many goals will there be in Illescas vs Marchamalo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Illescas vs Marchamalo?
Our predicted score is Illescas 1–1 Marchamalo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Illescas vs Marchamalo?
Illescas vs Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Illescas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Calvo Sotelo2