Value bet: Fidelis Andria to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAfragolese to win ✓41% · @2.17
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.39
Afragolese vs Fidelis Andria preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone H sees Afragolese take on Fidelis Andria on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadio Luigi Moccia.
Form guide
Afragolese's last 4: DWLD Most recently they drew with Ferrandina 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Fidelis Andria's last 4: WLWL Most recently they beat Heraclea 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Afragolese and 1.1 for Fidelis Andria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Fidelis Andria to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Afragolese 1–1 Fidelis Andria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Afragolese41%fair 2.43 · @2.17
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Fidelis Andria35%fair 2.90 · @3.25
2.34Expected goals
1.24Afragolese xG
1.10Fidelis Andria xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Afragolese 1.2 – 1.1 Fidelis Andria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Afragolese to win✓
41%
2.43
2.17
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.86
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Afragolese / FT Afragolese✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.39
–
Form
Afragolese – last 4
DWLD
15 Mar
@ Ferrandina
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Real Acerrana
5–2
W
22 Feb
@ Barletta
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Nardò
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Fidelis Andria – last 4
WLWL
15 Mar
vs Heraclea
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Nardò
2–3
L
22 Feb
vs Città di Fasano
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Nola 1925
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Afragolese and Fidelis Andria.
What is the prediction for Afragolese vs Fidelis Andria?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Afragolese vs Fidelis Andria?
On our numbers Afragolese have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fidelis Andria 35%.
How many goals will there be in Afragolese vs Fidelis Andria?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Afragolese vs Fidelis Andria?
Our predicted score is Afragolese 1–1 Fidelis Andria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Afragolese vs Fidelis Andria?
Afragolese vs Fidelis Andria (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Moccia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paganese3
Ferrandina1
Barletta2
Città di Fasano2
Heraclea1
Sarnese1