Value bet: Sarnese to win @ 2.65 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarnese to win ✗41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · fair 1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.20
Heraclea vs Sarnese preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone H sees Heraclea take on Sarnese on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria.
Form guide
Heraclea's last 4: LLDW Most recently they lost to Fidelis Andria 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sarnese's last 3: WDD Most recently they beat Gravina 2–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Sarnese arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Heraclea and 1.3 for Sarnese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Heraclea 36%, draw 23%, Sarnese 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.78.
Value angle: Sarnese to win at 2.65 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Heraclea 1–1 Sarnese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Heraclea36%fair 2.74 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
Sarnese41%fair 2.47 · @2.65
2.46Expected goals
1.19Heraclea xG
1.27Sarnese xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Heraclea 1.2 – 1.3 Sarnese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarnese to win✗
41%
2.47
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.78
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.74
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.27
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarnese / FT Sarnese✗
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.20
–
Form
Heraclea – last 4
LLDW
15 Mar
@ Fidelis Andria
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Virtus Francavilla
1–3
L
22 Feb
@ Nardò
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Real Acerrana
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Sarnese – last 3
WDD
15 Mar
vs Gravina
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Paganese
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Real Normanna
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heraclea and Sarnese.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Heraclea vs Sarnese?
On our numbers Heraclea have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sarnese 41%.
How many goals will there be in Heraclea vs Sarnese?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heraclea vs Sarnese?
Our predicted score is Heraclea 1–1 Sarnese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Heraclea vs Sarnese?
Heraclea vs Sarnese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paganese3
Martina Franca2
Real Normanna3
Ferrandina1
Gravina0
Barletta2
Afragolese2
Fidelis Andria1
Città di Fasano2
Manfredonia1