Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Martina Franca to win @ 2.88 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMartina Franca to win ✗39% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.64
Paganese vs Martina Franca preview and prediction
The match
Paganese host Martina Franca in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Form guide
Paganese's last 4: LLDW Most recently they lost to Manfredonia 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Martina Franca's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Ferrandina 1–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Martina Franca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Paganese and 1.1 for Martina Franca. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paganese 36%, draw 24%, Martina Franca 39%.
Value angle: Martina Franca to win at 2.88 – 39% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Paganese 1–1 Martina Franca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paganese36%fair 2.74 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.10
Martina Franca39%fair 2.54 · @2.88
2.12Expected goals
1.03Paganese xG
1.09Martina Franca xG
43%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Paganese 1.0 – 1.1 Martina Franca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Martina Franca to win✗
39%
2.54
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
20%
4.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.64
–
Form
Paganese – last 4
LLDW
15 Mar
@ Manfredonia
1–3
L
1 Mar
vs Barletta
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sarnese
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Martina Franca – last 3
WWW
1 Mar
vs Ferrandina
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Pompei
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Manfredonia
4–3
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paganese and Martina Franca.
What is the prediction for Paganese vs Martina Franca?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Paganese vs Martina Franca?
On our numbers Paganese have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Martina Franca 39%.
How many goals will there be in Paganese vs Martina Franca?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paganese vs Martina Franca?
Our predicted score is Paganese 1–1 Martina Franca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Paganese vs Martina Franca?
Paganese vs Martina Franca (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ferrandina1
Barletta2
Afragolese2
Città di Fasano2
Heraclea1
Sarnese1