Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Asti to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAsti to win ✗38% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.48
Derthona vs Asti preview and prediction
The match
Derthona host Asti in the Serie D Girone A on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Fausto Coppi. Derthona are 4th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Asti sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Derthona's last 4: LLWL Most recently they lost to Cairese 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Asti's last 4: LWLW Most recently they lost to Città di Varese 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Asti arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Derthona and 1.1 for Asti. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 45%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derthona 38%, draw 24%, Asti 38%.
Value angle: Asti to win at 3.20 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 60% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Derthona 1–1 Asti. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derthona38%fair 2.64 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Asti38%fair 2.62 · @3.20
2.26Expected goals
1.13Derthona xG
1.13Asti xG
45%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Derthona 1.1 – 1.1 Asti expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Asti to win✗
38%
2.62
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Asti / FT Asti✗
20%
4.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.48
–
Form
Derthona – last 4
LLWL
15 Mar
@ Cairese
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Biellese
0–3
L
22 Feb
@ Lavagnese
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Chisola
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Asti – last 4
LWLW
15 Mar
vs Città di Varese
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Sanremese
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Biellese
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs NovaRomentin
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derthona and Asti.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Derthona vs Asti?
On our numbers Derthona have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Asti 38%.
How many goals will there be in Derthona vs Asti?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derthona vs Asti?
Our predicted score is Derthona 1–1 Asti, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Derthona vs Asti?
Derthona vs Asti (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Fausto Coppi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Club Milano2
NovaRomentin0
Città di Varese2
Vado6
Cairese1
Lavagnese1