Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPineto to win ✗44% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Pineto vs Sambenedettese preview and prediction
The match
Sambenedettese travel to Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani in the Serie C Girone B on Sunday 29 March (19:30 WAT) to face Pineto. Pineto are 11th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Sambenedettese sit 17th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Pineto's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to Pianese 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sambenedettese's last 4: DWLL Most recently they drew with Ternana 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Pineto and 1.0 for Sambenedettese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Pineto 1–1 Sambenedettese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pineto44%fair 2.27 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @2.90
Sambenedettese32%fair 3.11 · @3.10
2.22Expected goals
1.23Pineto xG
0.99Sambenedettese xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Pineto 1.2 – 1.0 Sambenedettese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pineto to win✗
44%
2.27
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pineto / FT Pineto✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.50
–
Form
Pineto – last 4
LWLL
8 Mar
@ Pianese
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Forli
3–2
W
21 Feb
@ Livorno
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Ternana
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sambenedettese – last 4
DWLL
20 Mar
@ Ternana
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Guidonia Montecelio 1937
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Ascoli
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Torres
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pineto and Sambenedettese.
What is the prediction for Pineto vs Sambenedettese?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Pineto vs Sambenedettese?
On our numbers Pineto have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sambenedettese 32%.
How many goals will there be in Pineto vs Sambenedettese?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pineto vs Sambenedettese?
Our predicted score is Pineto 1–1 Sambenedettese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Pineto vs Sambenedettese?
Pineto vs Sambenedettese (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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