Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Ucam Murcia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUcam Murcia to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceUcam Murcia or draw ✗83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.00
Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén preview and prediction
The match
Ucam Murcia host Real Jaén in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 26 April, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio de La Condomina.
Form guide
Ucam Murcia's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to La Unión Atlético 1–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Real Jaén's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Yeclano 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Jaén arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Ucam Murcia and 0.8 for Real Jaén. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ucam Murcia 57%, draw 26%, Real Jaén 17%.
Safer route: Ucam Murcia or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Ucam Murcia to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ucam Murcia or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ucam Murcia 1–0 Real Jaén. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ucam Murcia57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.00
Real Jaén17%fair 5.95 · @3.90
2.45Expected goals
1.66Ucam Murcia xG
0.79Real Jaén xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Ucam Murcia 1.7 – 0.8 Real Jaén expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ucam Murcia to win✗
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Ucam Murcia or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ucam Murcia / FT Ucam Murcia✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.00
–
Form
Ucam Murcia – last 6
LLDDWL
19 Apr
@ La Unión Atlético
1–4
L
5 Apr
@ Deportiva Minera
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Linares Deportivo
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Yeclano
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Melilla
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Estepona
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Jaén – last 6
WDWWWW
15 Mar
vs Yeclano
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ Linares Deportivo
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Águilas
3–1
W
25 Feb
@ Xerez Deportivo
3–1
W
22 Feb
@ Melilla
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Deportiva Minera
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ucam Murcia and Real Jaén.
What is the prediction for Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?
Our pick is Ucam Murcia or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?
On our numbers Ucam Murcia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Real Jaén 17%.
How many goals will there be in Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?
Our predicted score is Ucam Murcia 1–0 Real Jaén, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?
Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de La Condomina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Almería II3
Deportiva Minera4
Antoniano2
Recreativo Huelva0
Estepona2
Águilas1
Extremadura 19244
La Unión Atlético2
Lorca Deportiva2
Yeclano2
Puente Genil2
Málaga II1
Xerez Deportivo0
Xerez0