Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: SD Logroñés to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSD Logroñés to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chanceSD Logroñés or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓16% · fair 6.22
Alfaro vs SD Logroñés preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 2 sees Alfaro take on SD Logroñés on Sunday 26 April, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas.
Form guide
Alfaro's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Náxara 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
SD Logroñés's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Real Zaragoza II 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.7 for Alfaro and 1.7 for SD Logroñés. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: SD Logroñés to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was SD Logroñés or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alfaro 0–1 SD Logroñés. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alfaro17%fair 5.89 · @3.80
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.30
SD Logroñés63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
2.33Expected goals
0.68Alfaro xG
1.65SD Logroñés xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
0–010%
1–29%
0–37%
From our goals model: Alfaro 0.7 – 1.7 SD Logroñés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SD Logroñés to win✓
63%
1.59
1.80 ▲
Double chance
SD Logroñés or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SD Logroñés / FT SD Logroñés✓
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
16%
6.22
–
Form
Alfaro – last 6
WWLLDD
19 Apr
vs Náxara
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Real Zaragoza II
3–1
W
29 Mar
@ Basconia
4–6
L
22 Mar
vs UD Logroñés
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ejea
2–2
D
8 Mar
vs Amorebieta
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
SD Logroñés – last 6
WLLLDD
19 Apr
vs Real Zaragoza II
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Basconia
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Mutilvera
1–3
L
1 Mar
@ UD Logroñés
0–5
L
22 Feb
vs Beasain
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Ebro
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alfaro and SD Logroñés.
Our pick is SD Logroñés or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alfaro vs SD Logroñés?
On our numbers Alfaro have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and SD Logroñés 63%.
How many goals will there be in Alfaro vs SD Logroñés?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alfaro vs SD Logroñés?
Our predicted score is Alfaro 0–1 SD Logroñés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alfaro vs SD Logroñés?
Alfaro vs SD Logroñés (Segunda División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Amorebieta1
Sestao River1
Basconia0
Gernika0
Ejea1
Eibar II1
Beasain0
Deportivo Alavés II2
UD Logroñés3
Mutilvera0
Real Zaragoza II3
Real Unión1