Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 3.35 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPonferradina to win ✓44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.47
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo preview and prediction
The match
Ponferradina host Barakaldo in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 19 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Toralín. Ponferradina are 11th with 15 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Barakaldo sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ponferradina's last 4: DDWW Most recently they drew with Ourense CF 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Barakaldo's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Real Madrid II 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Ponferradina and 1.0 for Barakaldo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Barakaldo to win at 3.35 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Ponferradina 1–1 Barakaldo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ponferradina44%fair 2.27 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Barakaldo33%fair 3.06 · @3.35
2.21Expected goals
1.22Ponferradina xG
0.99Barakaldo xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.2 – 1.0 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ponferradina to win✓
44%
2.27
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina✓
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.47
–
Form
Ponferradina – last 4
DDWW
29 Mar
@ Ourense CF
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Cacereño
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Real Madrid II
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
WWWLWD
27 Mar
vs Real Madrid II
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Ourense CF
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Arenas Getxo
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Osasuna II
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Zamora
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponferradina and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Barakaldo 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–1 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Toralín.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Osasuna II0
CF Talavera