Value bet: Mérida AD to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMérida AD to win ✓39% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.53
Arenteiro vs Mérida AD preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Arenteiro take on Mérida AD on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio de Espiñedo.
Form guide
Arenteiro's last 3: LDL Most recently they lost to Arenas Getxo 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Mérida AD's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with Athletic Club II 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Mérida AD arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Arenteiro and 1.3 for Mérida AD. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arenteiro 37%, draw 24%, Mérida AD 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Mérida AD to win at 2.75 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Arenteiro 1–1 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arenteiro37%fair 2.68 · @2.35
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.25
Mérida AD39%fair 2.57 · @2.75
2.48Expected goals
1.23Arenteiro xG
1.26Mérida AD xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Arenteiro 1.2 – 1.3 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win✓
39%
2.57
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD✓
21%
4.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.53
–
Form
Arenteiro – last 3
LDL
5 Apr
vs Arenas Getxo
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Celta de Vigo II
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ CF Talavera
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 3
DLW
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
22 Feb
vs Cacereño
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arenteiro and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Arenteiro have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mérida AD 39%.
How many goals will there be in Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Arenteiro 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
Arenteiro vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Espiñedo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Osasuna II0
CF Talavera