CF Talavera travel to Estadio Anxo Carro in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 19 April (19:30 WAT) to face Lugo.
Form guide
Lugo's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Osasuna II 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CF Talavera's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with Guadalajara 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Lugo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Lugo and 0.7 for CF Talavera. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lugo 58%, draw 22%, CF Talavera 20%.
Safer route: Lugo or draw (80%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lugo to win – a 58% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.72, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lugo 1–0 CF Talavera. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugo58%fair 1.72 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.00
CF Talavera20%fair 5.02 · @3.95
2.21Expected goals
1.50Lugo xG
0.72CF Talavera xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.5 – 0.7 CF Talavera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Lugo or draw
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.55
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
81%
1.24
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
16%
6.10
–
Form
Lugo – last 5
LWDWW
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
CF Talavera – last 3
DLW
22 Mar
@ Guadalajara
1–1
D
20 Feb
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Arenteiro
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and CF Talavera.
Our pick is Lugo to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Lugo vs CF Talavera?
On our numbers Lugo have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CF Talavera 20%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs CF Talavera?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs CF Talavera?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–0 CF Talavera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs CF Talavera?
Lugo vs CF Talavera (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Osasuna II0