Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBarakaldo to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.44
Barakaldo vs Ourense CF preview and prediction
The match
Barakaldo host Ourense CF in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT) at Campo de Lasesarre.
Form guide
Barakaldo's last 3: LWD Most recently they lost to Arenas Getxo 1–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Barakaldo and 0.7 for Ourense CF. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Barakaldo to win at 1.85 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Barakaldo 2–0 Ourense CF. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Barakaldo59%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.10
Ourense CF20%fair 4.96 · @4.10
2.31Expected goals
1.57Barakaldo xG
0.74Ourense CF xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Barakaldo 1.6 – 0.7 Ourense CF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win✓
59%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.44
–
Form
Barakaldo – last 3
LWD
1 Mar
@ Arenas Getxo
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Osasuna II
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Zamora
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ourense CF – last 1
L
22 Feb
@ Guadalajara
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barakaldo and Ourense CF.
What is the prediction for Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
On our numbers Barakaldo have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ourense CF 20%.
How many goals will there be in Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
Our predicted score is Barakaldo 2–0 Ourense CF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
Barakaldo vs Ourense CF (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Lasesarre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
