Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Villarreal II to win @ 3.45 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlcorcon to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.75
Alcorcon vs Villarreal II preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 2 sees Alcorcon take on Villarreal II on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo. Alcorcon are 5th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Villarreal II sit 2nd on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Alcorcon's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Hércules 4–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villarreal II's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Algeciras 4–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Alcorcon and 1.0 for Villarreal II. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alcorcon 40%, draw 26%, Villarreal II 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Villarreal II to win at 3.45 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Alcorcon 1–1 Villarreal II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alcorcon40%fair 2.50 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.95
Villarreal II34%fair 2.90 · @3.45
2.18Expected goals
1.15Alcorcon xG
1.04Villarreal II xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Alcorcon 1.1 – 1.0 Villarreal II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✗
40%
2.50
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.75
–
Form
Alcorcon – last 5
WDLDW
5 Apr
vs Hércules
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Algeciras
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Juventud Torremolinos
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Eldense
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Villarreal II – last 5
WDLWW
12 Apr
vs Algeciras
4–0
W
29 Mar
vs Sabadell
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Teruel
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Eldense
2–0
W
20 Feb
@ Real Betis II
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Villarreal II.
What is the prediction for Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Villarreal II 34%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
Our predicted score is Alcorcon 1–1 Villarreal II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
Alcorcon vs Villarreal II (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Marbella2
Sevilla Atletico1
Real Betis II2
Tarazona0
Eldense0
Sabadell0