Value bet: Ibiza to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIbiza to win56% · @1.91
Double chanceIbiza or draw82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–018% · fair 5.64
Ibiza vs Alcorcon preview and prediction
The match
Alcorcon travel to Palladium Can Misses in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 29 March (11:00 WAT) to face Ibiza. Ibiza are 6th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Alcorcon sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ibiza's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Eldense 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alcorcon's last 4: DLDW Most recently they drew with Algeciras 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.4 for Ibiza and 0.7 for Alcorcon. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ibiza 56%, draw 26%, Alcorcon 18%.
Safer route: Ibiza or draw (82%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Ibiza to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Ibiza 1–0 Alcorcon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ibiza56%fair 1.79 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.00
Alcorcon18%fair 5.64 · @4.10
2.08Expected goals
1.42Ibiza xG
0.66Alcorcon xG
51%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ibiza 1.4 – 0.7 Alcorcon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ibiza to win
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Ibiza or draw
82%
1.22
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.97
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ibiza / FT Ibiza
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
18%
5.64
–
Form
Ibiza – last 5
LLWLW
22 Mar
@ Eldense
0–3
L
15 Mar
vs Marbella
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Tarazona
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Teruel
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Sabadell
2–0
W
0.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Alcorcon – last 4
DLDW
15 Mar
vs Algeciras
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Juventud Torremolinos
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Eldense
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ibiza and Alcorcon.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Ibiza vs Alcorcon?
On our numbers Ibiza have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alcorcon 18%.
How many goals will there be in Ibiza vs Alcorcon?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ibiza vs Alcorcon?
Our predicted score is Ibiza 1–0 Alcorcon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ibiza vs Alcorcon?
Ibiza vs Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Palladium Can Misses.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sabadell1
Sevilla Atletico0
Tarazona1
Eldense2
Marbella0