Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Hércules to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHércules to win ✓62% · @1.80
Double chanceHércules or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.81
Hércules vs Marbella preview and prediction
The match
Marbella travel to Estadio José Rico Pérez in the Primera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 29 March (17:45 WAT) to face Hércules.
Form guide
Hércules's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Real Betis II 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Marbella's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Sevilla Atletico 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Marbella arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Hércules and 0.6 for Marbella. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Hércules to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Hércules 1–0 Marbella. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hércules62%fair 1.61 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.20
Marbella14%fair 7.37 · @4.33
2.25Expected goals
1.64Hércules xG
0.62Marbella xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Hércules 1.6 – 0.6 Marbella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hércules to win✓
62%
1.61
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Hércules or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hércules / FT Hércules✓
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.81
–
Form
Hércules – last 5
LWDDL
20 Mar
@ Real Betis II
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Real Murcia
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlético Madrid II
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Antequera
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Marbella – last 5
WWDWL
22 Mar
vs Sevilla Atletico
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Ibiza
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ Real Murcia
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Algeciras
4–1
W
15 Feb
@ FC Cartagena
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hércules and Marbella.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Hércules vs Marbella?
On our numbers Hércules have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Marbella 14%.
How many goals will there be in Hércules vs Marbella?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hércules vs Marbella?
Our predicted score is Hércules 1–0 Marbella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Hércules vs Marbella?
Hércules vs Marbella (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio José Rico Pérez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sabadell1
Sevilla Atletico0
Tarazona1
Eldense2