Value bet: Real Murcia to win @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Murcia to win ✓62% · @1.83
Double chanceReal Murcia or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓21% · fair 4.70
Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 2 sees Sevilla Atletico take on Real Murcia on Sunday 29 March, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estadio Jesus Navas.
Form guide
Sevilla Atletico's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Marbella 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Real Murcia's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Hércules 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.5 for Sevilla Atletico and 1.4 for Real Murcia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sevilla Atletico 13%, draw 25%, Real Murcia 62%.
Safer route: Real Murcia or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Real Murcia to win at 1.83 – 62% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Sevilla Atletico 0–1 Real Murcia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sevilla Atletico13%fair 7.79 · @4.40
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.10
Real Murcia62%fair 1.62 · @1.83
1.91Expected goals
0.47Sevilla Atletico xG
1.43Real Murcia xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–215%
0–015%
1–110%
0–37%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sevilla Atletico 0.5 – 1.4 Real Murcia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Murcia to win✓
62%
1.62
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Real Murcia or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Murcia / FT Real Murcia✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
21%
4.70
–
Form
Sevilla Atletico – last 6
LDLLLL
22 Mar
@ Marbella
0–3
L
15 Mar
vs Antequera
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Real Betis II
1–3
L
25 Feb
@ FC Cartagena
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tarazona
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Teruel
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Murcia – last 5
LDLLL
15 Mar
@ Hércules
0–2
L
11 Mar
vs Marbella
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Sanluqueño
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs FC Cartagena
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Alcorcon
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevilla Atletico and Real Murcia.
What is the prediction for Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia?
On our numbers Sevilla Atletico have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Murcia 62%.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia?
Our predicted score is Sevilla Atletico 0–1 Real Murcia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia?
Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jesus Navas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sabadell1
Tarazona1
Eldense2
Marbella0