Value bet: Caen to win @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaen to win ✓60% · @1.77
Double chanceCaen or draw ✓82% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.05
Caen vs Villefranche preview and prediction
The match
Villefranche travel to Stade Michel d'Ornano in the National 1 on Friday 24 April (18:30 WAT) to face Caen. Caen are 3rd with 22 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Villefranche sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Caen's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Bourg-en-bresse 01 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Villefranche's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Gobelins 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Caen and 0.8 for Villefranche. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Caen to win at 1.77 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Caen 1–0 Villefranche. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caen60%fair 1.65 · @1.77
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.25
Villefranche18%fair 5.44 · @4.40
2.48Expected goals
1.70Caen xG
0.79Villefranche xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Caen 1.7 – 0.8 Villefranche expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✓
60%
1.65
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Caen or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✓
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.05
–
Form
Caen – last 6
WWDDLD
17 Apr
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Gobelins
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Stade Briochin
1–1
D
27 Mar
@ Rouen
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Le Puy Foot
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs Chateauroux
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Villefranche – last 6
WDWDLW
17 Apr
vs Gobelins
3–1
W
10 Apr
@ Stade Briochin
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Rouen
2–1
W
27 Mar
@ Orleans
0–0
D
20 Mar
vs Le Puy Foot
2–3
L
13 Mar
@ Chateauroux
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and Villefranche.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Caen vs Villefranche?
On our numbers Caen have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villefranche 18%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs Villefranche?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs Villefranche?
Our predicted score is Caen 1–0 Villefranche, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Caen vs Villefranche?
Caen vs Villefranche (National 1) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chateauroux0
Sochaux2
Stade Briochin1
Dijon1