Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Rouen to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRouen to win ✗63% · @1.80
Double chanceRouen or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.71
Rouen vs Caen preview and prediction
The match
Rouen host Caen in the National 1 on Friday 27 March, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stade Robert Diochon. Rouen are 2nd with 26 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Caen sit 3rd on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Rouen's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Gobelins 0–0 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Caen's last 4: LDLD Most recently they lost to Le Puy Foot 0–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Rouen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.6 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Rouen and 0.6 for Caen. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rouen 63%, draw 25%, Caen 12%.
Safer route: Rouen or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Rouen to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Rouen or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Rouen 1–0 Caen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rouen63%fair 1.58 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.10
Caen12%fair 8.56 · @3.90
2.26Expected goals
1.68Rouen xG
0.58Caen xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–010%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Rouen 1.7 – 0.6 Caen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rouen to win✗
63%
1.58
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Rouen or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rouen / FT Rouen✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.71
–
Form
Rouen – last 5
DWLDW
20 Mar
@ Gobelins
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Stade Briochin
3–2
W
6 Mar
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–3
L
20 Feb
vs Le Puy Foot
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Chateauroux
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Caen – last 4
LDLD
13 Mar
@ Le Puy Foot
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs Chateauroux
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Sochaux
1–3
L
13 Feb
@ Dijon
3–3
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rouen and Caen.
Our pick is Rouen or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Rouen vs Caen?
On our numbers Rouen have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Caen 12%.
How many goals will there be in Rouen vs Caen?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rouen vs Caen?
Our predicted score is Rouen 1–0 Caen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Rouen vs Caen?
Rouen vs Caen (National 1) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Robert Diochon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chateauroux3
Dijon3
Sochaux2
Stade Briochin0