Value bet: Concarneau to win @ 2.62 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultConcarneau to win ✗41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.29
Chateauroux vs Concarneau preview and prediction
The match
The National 1 sees Chateauroux take on Concarneau on Friday 27 March, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stade Gaston Petit.
Form guide
Chateauroux's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Stade Briochin 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Concarneau's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Valenciennes 1–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Concarneau arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Chateauroux and 1.2 for Concarneau. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Concarneau to win at 2.62 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Chateauroux 1–1 Concarneau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chateauroux34%fair 2.90 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.10
Concarneau41%fair 2.42 · @2.62
2.32Expected goals
1.09Chateauroux xG
1.23Concarneau xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Chateauroux 1.1 – 1.2 Concarneau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✗
41%
2.42
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.29
–
Form
Chateauroux – last 5
LLDLL
17 Mar
@ Stade Briochin
0–2
L
13 Mar
vs Villefranche
0–1
L
6 Mar
@ Caen
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Gobelins
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Rouen
1–2
L
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Concarneau – last 5
LLDWL
20 Mar
vs Valenciennes
1–2
L
13 Mar
@ Sochaux
0–2
L
6 Mar
vs Dijon
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Fleury 91
4–0
W
20 Feb
vs Versailles
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chateauroux and Concarneau.
What is the prediction for Chateauroux vs Concarneau?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chateauroux vs Concarneau?
On our numbers Chateauroux have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Concarneau 41%.
How many goals will there be in Chateauroux vs Concarneau?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chateauroux vs Concarneau?
Our predicted score is Chateauroux 1–1 Concarneau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Chateauroux vs Concarneau?
Chateauroux vs Concarneau (National 1) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade Gaston Petit.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dijon3
Sochaux2
Stade Briochin0