Value bet: Villefranche to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChateauroux to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.22
Chateauroux vs Villefranche preview and prediction
The match
Chateauroux host Villefranche in the National 1 on Friday 13 March, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stade Gaston Petit.
Form guide
Chateauroux's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Caen 2–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Villefranche's last 4: LLLD Most recently they lost to Valenciennes 2–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Chateauroux and 1.2 for Villefranche. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Villefranche to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Chateauroux 1–1 Villefranche. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chateauroux40%fair 2.48 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.10
Villefranche35%fair 2.82 · @3.10
2.42Expected goals
1.26Chateauroux xG
1.16Villefranche xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Chateauroux 1.3 – 1.2 Villefranche expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chateauroux to win✗
40%
2.48
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chateauroux / FT Chateauroux✗
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.22
–
Form
Chateauroux – last 3
DLL
6 Mar
@ Caen
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Gobelins
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Rouen
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Villefranche – last 4
LLLD
6 Mar
vs Valenciennes
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Sochaux
1–2
L
20 Feb
vs Dijon
1–2
L
13 Feb
@ Fleury 91
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chateauroux and Villefranche.
What is the prediction for Chateauroux vs Villefranche?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chateauroux vs Villefranche?
On our numbers Chateauroux have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Villefranche 35%.
How many goals will there be in Chateauroux vs Villefranche?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chateauroux vs Villefranche?
Our predicted score is Chateauroux 1–1 Villefranche, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Chateauroux vs Villefranche?
Chateauroux vs Villefranche (National 1) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade Gaston Petit.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dijon2
Stade Briochin2
Sochaux2