Value bet: Palermo to win @ 1.73 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalermo to win ✓66% · @1.73
Double chancePalermo or draw ✓86% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.09
Palermo vs Sudtirol preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Palermo take on Sudtirol on Saturday 21 February, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Palermo are 1st with 27 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Sudtirol sit 12th on 15 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Palermo and 0.6 for Sudtirol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Palermo 66%, draw 20%, Sudtirol 14%.
Safer route: Palermo or draw (86%) at 1.19.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Palermo to win at 1.73 – 66% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Palermo 1–0 Sudtirol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palermo66%fair 1.51 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.60
Sudtirol14%fair 7.20 · @4.60
2.37Expected goals
1.75Palermo xG
0.61Sudtirol xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Palermo 1.8 – 0.6 Sudtirol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palermo to win✓
66%
1.51
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Palermo or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.71
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.27
Half-time result
Palermo ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palermo / FT Palermo✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.09
–
Form
Palermo
No recent results on record.
Sudtirol – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Bari
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palermo and Sudtirol.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Palermo vs Sudtirol?
On our numbers Palermo have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sudtirol 14%.
How many goals will there be in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our predicted score is Palermo 1–0 Sudtirol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Palermo vs Sudtirol (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bari1
Venezia3
Pescara2
Spezia3
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