Value bet: Vila Real to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAparecida to win ✓38% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.01
Aparecida vs Vila Real preview and prediction
The match
The Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B sees Aparecida take on Vila Real on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estádio Vila Mítica.
Form guide
Aparecida's last 5: LDWDL Most recently they lost to Rebordosa 1–3 away. They average 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Vila Real's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Resende 0–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Vila Real arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.6 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Aparecida and 1.2 for Vila Real. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 45%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aparecida 38%, draw 24%, Vila Real 38%.
Value angle: Vila Real to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Aparecida 1–1 Vila Real. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aparecida38%fair 2.61 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.20
Vila Real38%fair 2.63 · @2.90
2.37Expected goals
1.19Aparecida xG
1.18Vila Real xG
45%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Aparecida 1.2 – 1.2 Vila Real expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aparecida to win✓
38%
2.61
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aparecida / FT Aparecida✓
21%
4.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.01
–
Form
Aparecida – last 5
LDWDL
15 Mar
@ Rebordosa
1–3
L
8 Mar
@ Vila Meã
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Resende
3–1
W
22 Feb
@ Salgueiros
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Beira-Mar
1–5
L
1.4Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Vila Real – last 5
LDWDW
15 Mar
vs Resende
0–3
L
8 Mar
@ Salgueiros
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Beira-Mar
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Anadia
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Gouveia
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aparecida and Vila Real.
What is the prediction for Aparecida vs Vila Real?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Aparecida vs Vila Real?
On our numbers Aparecida have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vila Real 38%.
How many goals will there be in Aparecida vs Vila Real?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aparecida vs Vila Real?
Our predicted score is Aparecida 1–1 Vila Real, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Aparecida vs Vila Real?
Aparecida vs Vila Real (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Vila Mítica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Anadia0
Alpendorada3
Beira-Mar1
Cinfães1
Salgueiros2
Florgrade0
Gouveia0
União Lamas2
Vila Meã1
Rebordosa0
Resende1
Leça1