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Today's tips
III Liga Group 2 · Poland · Boisko GZS Tłuchowia Tłuchowo

Tłuchowia

LLWL
3–3
FT

Pogoń Szczecin II

DLLLW

Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II prediction & analysis

58%
Footrivo pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓

5/10Rating
1.65Odds
1

Value bet: Tłuchowia to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultPogoń Szczecin II to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.19

Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II preview and prediction

The match

Tłuchowia host Pogoń Szczecin II in the III Liga Group 2 on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Boisko GZS Tłuchowia Tłuchowo.

Form guide

Tłuchowia's last 4: LLWL Most recently they lost to Victoria Września 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.

Pogoń Szczecin II's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Lech Poznań II 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.4 for Tłuchowia and 1.7 for Pogoń Szczecin II. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Tłuchowia 1–2 Pogoń Szczecin II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Tłuchowia36%fair 2.81 · @3.00
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.60
Pogoń Szczecin II45%fair 2.22 · @2.00
3.09Expected goals
1.44Tłuchowia xG
1.66Pogoń Szczecin II xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%

From our goals model: Tłuchowia 1.4 – 1.7 Pogoń Szczecin II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPogoń Szczecin II to win ✗45%2.222.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81%1.241.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.86–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81%1.23–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓58%1.711.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗63%1.60–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓39%2.57–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pogoń Szczecin II / FT Pogoń Szczecin II ✗26%3.89–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.19–

Form

Tłuchowia – last 4

LLWL
19 Apr@ Victoria Września0–2L
1 Aprvs Zawisza Bydgoszcz0–1L
27 Marvs Lipno Stęszew3–1W
28 Feb@ Flota Świnoujście0–1L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Pogoń Szczecin II – last 6

DLLLWL
25 Aprvs Lech Poznań II2–2D
15 Aprvs Luzino1–2L
12 Aprvs Victoria Września1–2L
3 Apr@ Unia Swarzędz0–1L
22 Marvs Stargard Szczeciński3–0W
13 Mar@ Zawisza Bydgoszcz1–2L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Tłuchowia and Pogoń Szczecin II.

Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II head-to-head page →

More III Liga Group 2 predictions

League hub
FT Lipno Stęszew1 Noteć Czarnków0 140%2.25X22%3.50237%2.62 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 54%@1.75 ✗
FT Wda Świecie3 Polonia Środa2 136%2.75X21%3.60243%2.10 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 58%@1.62 ✓
FT Unia Swarzędz0 Stargard Szczeciński0 159%1.80X17%3.70224%3.40 1Unia Swarzędz to win 59%@1.80 ✗
FT Kluczevia Stargard2 Cartusia Kartuzy1 167%1.40X18%4.33215%5.75 1Kluczevia Stargard to win 67%@1.40 ✓
FT Victoria Września3 Elana Toruń2 161%1.83X17%3.70221%3.40 1Victoria Września to win 61%@1.83 ✓
FT Zawisza Bydgoszcz0 Flota Świnoujście1 172%1.28X20%5.0028%7.00 1Zawisza Bydgoszcz to win 72%@1.28 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

On our numbers Tłuchowia have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Pogoń Szczecin II 45%.

How many goals will there be in Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

Our predicted score is Tłuchowia 1–2 Pogoń Szczecin II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Boisko GZS Tłuchowia Tłuchowo.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.