Hereford vs Merthyr Town Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 6 Apr 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultMerthyr Town to win ✗42% · @2.40

Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.33

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.38

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.97

Hereford vs Merthyr Town preview and prediction

The match

Merthyr Town travel to Edgar Street in the National League North on Monday 6 April (15:00 WAT) to face Hereford. Hereford are 2nd with 30 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Merthyr Town sit 17th on 19 points (in the bottom half).

Form guide

Hereford's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Kidderminster Harriers 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Merthyr Town's last 4: DLWL Most recently they drew with Oxford City 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Merthyr Town arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.7 for Hereford and 1.8 for Merthyr Town. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Win chances: Hereford 37%, draw 21%, Merthyr Town 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.33.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Hereford 1–2 Merthyr Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Hereford37%fair 2.71 · @2.40

Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.75

Merthyr Town42%fair 2.39 · @2.40

3.51Expected goals

1.69Hereford xG

1.81Merthyr Town xG

66%Both score

68%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–19%

1–28%

2–18%

2–27%

0–15%

1–05%

From our goals model: Hereford 1.7 – 1.8 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Merthyr Town to win ✗	42%	2.39	2.40
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	79%	1.27	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	66%	1.50	1.33
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	53%	1.89	1.77
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	36%	2.77	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town ✗	25%	3.99	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	11.97	–

Form

Hereford – last 6

LLLLLW

3 Apr	@ Kidderminster Harriers	1–2	L
31 Mar	vs Macclesfield	0–2	L
24 Mar	vs Spennymoor Town	1–2	L
19 Mar	@ Alfreton Town	1–2	L
17 Mar	vs AFC Fylde	1–4	L
10 Mar	vs Leamington	5–1	W

1.5Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Merthyr Town – last 4

DLWL

3 Apr	vs Oxford City	1–1	D
10 Mar	vs Chester	1–2	L
24 Feb	@ Leamington	2–1	W
21 Feb	@ Alfreton Town	2–3	L

1.5Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

100%Both scored

75%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	+10	32
2	Hereford	16	9	3	4	+14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	+15	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	+10	27
5	Hednesford Town	16	8	3	5	+8	27
6	King's Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	+6	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	+5	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	+4	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	+5	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	-2	22
11	AFC Telford United	16	6	4	6	-4	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	+3	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	-1	20
14	Worksop Town	15	6	2	7	-1	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	-8	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	0	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	-1	19
18	Brackley Town	16	5	4	7	-9	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	-4	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	-3	16
21	Radcliffe	15	5	1	9	-8	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	-9	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	-15	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	-15	10

Team

Pts

+10

+14

+15

+10

-2

-4

-1

-1

-8

-1

-9

-4

-3

-8

-9

-15

-15

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.

Who will win Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

On our numbers Hereford have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Merthyr Town 42%.

How many goals will there be in Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

Our predicted score is Hereford 1–2 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

Hereford vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Edgar Street.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes