Pacos Ferreira host Penafiel in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
Form guide
Pacos Ferreira's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Feirense 1–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Penafiel's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Torreense 2–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Penafiel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Pacos Ferreira and 0.8 for Penafiel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%.
Safer route: Pacos Ferreira or draw (84%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Pacos Ferreira 2–0 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pacos Ferreira60%fair 1.65 · @1.68
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.70
Penafiel16%fair 6.29 · @4.45
2.55Expected goals
1.77Pacos Ferreira xG
0.78Penafiel xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Pacos Ferreira 1.8 – 0.8 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pacos Ferreira to win✓
60%
1.65
1.68
Double chance
Pacos Ferreira or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.36
Half-time result
Pacos Ferreira ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pacos Ferreira / FT Pacos Ferreira✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.25
–
Form
Pacos Ferreira – last 6
LLWDLL
3 May
vs Feirense
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–2
L
18 Apr
vs Chaves
4–3
W
10 Apr
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ União de Leiria
0–2
L
22 Mar
@ Leixoes
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
LWWLDD
4 May
@ Torreense
2–3
L
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pacos Ferreira and Penafiel.
What is the prediction for Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Pacos Ferreira have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penafiel 16%.
How many goals will there be in Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Pacos Ferreira 2–0 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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