Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.50 – our chance 50% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica to win73% · @1.11
Double chanceBenfica or draw87% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @2.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals85% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–011% · fair 9.12
Benfica vs AVS preview and prediction
The match
Benfica host AVS in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.4 for Benfica and 0.9 for AVS. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 50% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Benfica 73%, draw 14%, AVS 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.50.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.50 – 50% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Benfica 2–1 AVS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benfica73%fair 1.37 · @1.11
Draw14%fair 7.06 · @10.00
AVS13%fair 7.71 · @20.00
3.28Expected goals
2.41Benfica xG
0.87AVS xG
50%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–19%
1–09%
3–09%
1–18%
3–18%
From our goals model: Benfica 2.4 – 0.9 AVS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win
73%
1.37
1.11
Double chance
Benfica or draw
87%
1.15
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.99
2.50 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
85%
1.18
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.85
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0
11%
9.12
–
Form
Benfica – last 2
LW
17 Feb
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AVS – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Estoril
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and AVS.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Benfica vs AVS?
On our numbers Benfica have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 14% and AVS 13%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs AVS?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs AVS?
Our predicted score is Benfica 2–1 AVS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs AVS?
Benfica vs AVS (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
