Arouca host Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Nacional sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Arouca and 1.3 for Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arouca 44%, draw 22%, Nacional 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Arouca 1–1 Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arouca44%fair 2.28 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.30
Nacional34%fair 2.91 · @2.90
2.87Expected goals
1.54Arouca xG
1.33Nacional xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.5 – 1.3 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
44%
2.28
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.32
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✗
25%
3.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.19
–
Form
Arouca
No recent results on record.
Nacional – last 1
L
15 Feb
vs FC Porto
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Nacional.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
On our numbers Arouca have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nacional 34%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Nacional?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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