Value bet: Burgos to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultValladolid to win43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.90
Valladolid vs Burgos preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Valladolid take on Burgos on Saturday 28 March, kicking off at 16:15 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Valladolid are 12th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Burgos sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Burgos's last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Cordoba 4–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Valladolid and 1.0 for Burgos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Burgos to win at 3.50 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Valladolid 1–1 Burgos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valladolid43%fair 2.31 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.15
Burgos34%fair 2.91 · @3.50
2.27Expected goals
1.22Valladolid xG
1.04Burgos xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Valladolid 1.2 – 1.0 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valladolid to win
43%
2.31
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valladolid / FT Valladolid
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.90
–
Form
Valladolid – last 2
LD
22 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sporting Gijon
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 3
WDL
22 Mar
vs Cordoba
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Eibar
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Racing Santander
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valladolid and Burgos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Valladolid vs Burgos?
On our numbers Valladolid have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burgos 34%.
How many goals will there be in Valladolid vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valladolid vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Valladolid 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Valladolid vs Burgos?
Valladolid vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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