Value bet: Albacete to win @ 2.66 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlbacete to win44% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–09% · fair 10.90
Albacete vs Castellón preview and prediction
The match
Albacete host Castellón in the Segunda División on Saturday 28 March, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Carlos Belmonte. Albacete are 21st with 10 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Castellón sit 2nd on 27 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Albacete's last 4: WDLD Most recently they beat Las Palmas 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Albacete and 1.3 for Castellón. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 62%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Albacete to win at 2.66 – 44% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Albacete 1–1 Castellón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Albacete44%fair 2.25 · @2.66
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
Castellón35%fair 2.84 · @2.40
2.79Expected goals
1.50Albacete xG
1.30Castellón xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Albacete 1.5 – 1.3 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Albacete to win
44%
2.25
2.66 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
62%
1.61
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Albacete / FT Albacete
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
9%
10.90
–
Form
Albacete – last 4
WDLD
16 Mar
vs Las Palmas
2–1
W
27 Feb
vs Almeria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Malaga
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Sporting Gijon
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Castellón – last 2
DW
23 Mar
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Albacete and Castellón.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Albacete vs Castellón?
On our numbers Albacete have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Castellón 35%.
How many goals will there be in Albacete vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Albacete vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Albacete 1–1 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Albacete vs Castellón?
Albacete vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Belmonte.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna